The global pulp price continues to rise, and there are different opinions.

Since the international pulp price rose from the bottom in the second quarter, it has risen continuously for half a year. Even in the third quarter, which is generally considered to be the off-season, the price of pulp has continued to rise. The continuous reduction of production in pulp mills, increased demand and market pulp stocks are obvious. Under the spur of the decline, in September, the pursuit of a new trend, launched a new round of price increases, regardless of long and short, the increase was 40 US dollars / t.

According to foreign reports, the sales volume of global commercial pulp in July this year was 3.549 million tons, which was 12,000 tons less than that in June, including 1.73 million tons of long-fiber pulp and 1.692 million tons of short-fiber pulp. The inventory is 29 days, which is equivalent to that of June. The stock of long fiber is 25 days and the stock of staple fiber is 32 days, which is 1 day lower than that of the previous January. Compared with the inventory days at the beginning of the year, it has dropped by 21 days. 1.73 million tons.

As for August, the shipment of commercial pulp was 3.568 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1% from July and an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year. Among them, the market in North America was 644,000 tons, which was 2.7% lower than that in July and 1.5% lower than the same period of last year. It was 833,000 tons in the Chinese market, 22.7% more than the 724,000 tons in July, and a significant increase of 131.4% over the same period last year. And to Western Europe was 1.092 million tons, a decrease of 7.5% from July and a decrease of 7.7% from the same period last year.

In August, the stock of commercial pulp was 27 days, which was 2 days lower than that in July. The stock of long fiber was reduced to 23 days, and the stock of short fiber was reduced to 30 days, both of which were reduced by 2 days from July. This stock is the first consecutive year since the beginning of the year. It fell for seven months and is a low stock since 1990.

From the situation that the stock of commercial pulp has been greatly reduced, it can be seen that the demand for pulp market has increased significantly. Therefore, the price adjustment in September has been supported and the new price has been established.

In the North American market, NBSK is raised by 40-50 USD/t, the new price is 770-780 USD/t, BEK is raised 40 USD/t, and the new price is 650 USD/t. It is reported that if the price is discounted, there will still be a gap in the final price. The NBSK discount is 12%-15%, the actual price is 655-675 USD/t; the NBHK discount is 15%-20%, and the transaction price is 510-540 USD/t. The BEK discount is 10%, and the actual price is less than 600 USD/t.

In the European market, NBSK is priced at $730-740/t, and BHKP and BEK are both at $600/t.

In the Asian market, NBSK is about 630 US dollars / t, radiata pine 590-610 US dollars / t, NBHK 490-510 US dollars / t; SBHK 490-500 US dollars / t, BEK is also 490-510 US dollars / t. In the spot market, NBSK has risen to 630-650 US dollars / t, radiata pine 580-590 US dollars / t, BEK 510-540 US dollars / t, and the quarterly spot market has experienced a big difference. In the Chinese market, NBSK is 640 US dollars / t, BEK is 540 US dollars / t, if in renminbi, NBSK offer rose 300 yuan / t, 4800-5100 yuan / t, after deducting 17% VAT and port handling fees, It is about 594-632 yuan / t, NBHK is 4750-4800 yuan / t.

As of September, the spread of long and short fibers has clearly increased, with a spread of $120/t in North America, $130-140/t in Europe, and $100/t in China.

Due to the good situation in the pulp market, the pulp mills have proposed to further increase the price of long and short fiber for the global pulp market in October, in which the long fiber is raised by US$30/t and the staple fiber is increased by US$40-50/t. The staple fiber market seems to be more tight. Reduced the price difference with long fiber.

In the market analysis, the price of pulp continued to rise, and the industry observed and concluded from several angles.

The first is that some pulp mills that are expected to reopen the production line in the near future have decided to delay the start-up. Among them, APRIL's NBHK production line with a capacity of 930,000 t/a and Oyi's annual production capacity of 310,000 tNBHK will be delayed, which is estimated. The world's original 1.7 million t/a production scheduled to be restarted in September, of which 75% of BHKP has been forced to postpone or cancel. Currently, the global commercial pulp is still controlled to reduce production by 7 million t/a or shut down the plant. in. The annual output from September to November this year reduced the output by about 2.3%. In Europe, the high price of wood chips and the high price of wood chips in the US pulp mills will help the pulp mills to reduce production by about 2 million tons next year. Among them, in North America, the de-pulping plant is shut down or the production is reduced. The northeast region is currently hot and humid summer, and the logging is inconvenient. Coupled with the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the number of new houses in North America is reduced, the amount of tree felling is greatly reduced, and the acquisition of wood chips is more difficult, thereby slowing down the pulp. Production.

The second is that China continues to purchase large quantities of pulp. Chinese paper and paperboard factories have increased the stock of pulp, which is the new paper machine that will be put into production at the end of the year or early next year. It is estimated that the new capacity will be about 2 million t/a, of which the APP Hainan plant will have an annual output in early 2010. A new 1 million t paper machine was put into production. The stock of paper mill pulp has been increased from the original 30 days to the current 40 days, and will be adjusted to 50-60 days in the future. When traders use bank credit to relax, they will increase their inventories by a large amount. Coupled with strong demand, NBSK has risen by 100 yuan/t to 4,900-5,200 yuan/t, while BHK has increased by 200 yuan/t to 4,950-5,000 yuan/t. .

The third is that South Korea's Tokai pulp mill has received many BHK orders from China, and many buyers hope to establish long-term cooperative relationships with them. However, Donghai Pulp Mill is expected to start production in the first half of 2011 due to the 450,000 t/a capacity new paper machine ordered from VoithPaper. It will withdraw from the Chinese commercial pulp market and Donghai Pulp Factory will sell 13,000 tBHK in August. China, about 11,000 tons in September, and an average of about 0.8 million tons per month in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that 60% of the production will be supplied to Moorim (Maolin Paper) in the future, and 40% will be supplied to the domestic market or exported to China.

In addition, due to China's active increase in pulp stocks, the BHK offer for South Korea's Tokai pulp mills to export to China increased by US$50/t, and the price was adjusted from US$540-550/t to US$590-595/t. Orders for September arrived in October, while South American pulp mills offered $510-540/t for BHK in China in September, but orders for September must also wait until November. China's BHK is currently limited to Indonesia's APRIL can not supply Acacia pulp, the market can not get the spot, mainly because APRIL can not obtain wood chips, delay the opening of the original shutdown production line, in addition, it is necessary to prioritize the previous contract orders. These orders are mainly from Japan, Korea, China and other countries in Southeast Asia.

In addition, in the case of limited stock, spot prices have risen sharply. Spot prices have risen in the past five months, but the gains accelerated in June-August. NBSK's current demand growth in the US, Europe and Asia can only be dealt with in a distributed manner. The price of staple fiber is also rising, but the spread between long fiber and short fiber is expanding. BEK pulp mills believe that the global inventory is low, plus the annual inspection period just entering the pulp mill, will make the future supply shortage more serious, and the depreciation of the US dollar also forced the pulp mill to increase the price of the pulp to avoid the loss of exchange.

However, another industry believes that although pulp mills are expected to increase their pulp prices in the future, the continuous increase in pulp prices will accelerate the relaunch of production lines in pulp mills in Asia and elsewhere, as many mills cannot digest higher pulp costs. The cultural paper market in Europe is still in the doldrums, and the driving rate of North American and European cultural paper production capacity is only 70%-80%.

Although the Chinese pulp market is in strong demand, it has cooled down in recent weeks, especially NBSK, and the pulp mill is still implementing the new price in September. There are many pulp mills that are beginning to worry that prices will plummet like last year. Because China's cumulative imports from January to July this year increased by 39.9% compared with the same period last year, to 8.2 million tons. By October last year, the cumulative import volume reached 8 million tons. On the other hand, although the pulp has not yet seen a weakening of demand, the production speed of paper has slowed down. This year, the inventory of paper products increased by 6% compared with last year. Therefore, it is expected that the price of pulp will be lowered in the fourth quarter of this year and the next quarter.

It is reported that China's pulp imports in July reached 1.23 million tons, an increase of 37.9% compared with the same period of last year. The cumulative imports from January to July increased by 39.9% compared with the same period of last year. Imports decreased by 9.7% compared with June, but imports have exceeded 1 million tons for six consecutive months. In July, the import of long fiber was 475,000 tons, an increase of 52.5% compared with the same period of last year, but it was 10.4% lower than that in June. From January to July, the cumulative import of long fiber was 3.01 million tons, an increase of 41.1% over the same period of last year. In July, the import of staple fiber was 465,000 tons, up 19.1% from the same period of last year, but it was 19.8% lower than that in June. The cumulative import of staple fiber from January to July was 3.57 million tons, an increase of 57.3% over the same period of last year.

In addition, although AbitibiBowater in North America will close NBSK's annual production capacity of 330,000 tons, it will have a significant impact on the market. However, there are still TerraceBay to restart the NBSK Nissan 1500t production line on November 1. Another FraserPaper has started the NBSK production line at the end of August. It is understood that in the Asian market, South Korea and Taiwan's paper mills are still reluctant to actively increase their stocks. They believe that only the market conditions in China are relatively high, and there is still uncertainty about the overall economic recovery in Asia. Therefore, it is still holding a wait-and-see attitude.

In the case of different market views, the future trend of the pulp market has attracted much attention.

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