The odds of political violence in Virginia just went up
If you want to get a firsthand look at how the U.S. might once again slip into political violence similar to what we saw in the 1970s, look no further than Virginia right now. It's one of the most compelling case studies in recent years of how social media-driven rumors, shifting demographics, the growing urban-rural divide, and mutual fears of unrest can spiral out of control — even when efforts are made to cool things down.
To be clear: The chances of the current culture wars turning hot are still extremely low. But a recent “public safety†move by Virginia Governor Ralph Northam, originally meant to de-escalate tensions between gun rights groups and the newly elected Democratic legislature, has only increased those odds.
On Wednesday, it was reported that Northam would use his emergency powers to ban firearms from a pro-gun protest scheduled for Monday at the state capitol. This comes after increasingly aggressive rhetoric from pro-gun groups in response to new gun control proposals from the Democratic legislature.
Here’s a tweet from *The Truth About Guns*:
EMERGENCY: Virginia Governor Northam to declare temporary emergency, ban all firearms from Capitol Square area ahead of @VCDL_ORG Lobby Day on Monday, 1/20.#Virgina #guncontrol #gunsense #politics #Northamhttps://t.co/r70lH6q1h7
— The Truth About Guns (@guntruth) January 15, 2020
Northam is expected to announce a temporary weapons ban in the Capitol Square, citing the events in Charlottesville as justification. However, based on my long-term coverage of the gun industry and following discussions on gun blogs and forums, I’m deeply concerned that this move will backfire. I believe the likelihood of violence on Monday — or soon after — has significantly increased.
For those unfamiliar with the situation, here are two solid background pieces on the protests and the surrounding “civil war†rhetoric:
- *Virginia Democrats won an election. Gun owners are talking civil war*
- *Prospect of gun control in Virginia draws threats, promise of armed protest*
Carrying long guns openly at the event was already illegal, so many attendees (estimates range from tens of thousands to over 100,000) had planned to carry concealed. Some, however, have openly declared their intent to defy the law and carry openly — some even from militia groups or out-of-state. These individuals are planning to show up in full “battle rattle,†sometimes with their faces covered, as an act of civil disobedience.
I’ve seen images circulating online, including this one:
This could have come from a Russian disinfo campaign, but I’m not sure it matters at this point
These more radical activists may respond to Northam’s decision in one of two ways:
1. Show up armed anyway, risking — or even provoking — a violent confrontation with police.
2. Decide that non-violent resistance is futile and begin preparing for more serious forms of resistance.
Some of those who were planning to carry concealed may also end up taking these steps, further radicalizing the group.
Northam’s use of emergency powers against pro-gun demonstrators has also fueled dangerous misinformation that has been spreading in the lead-up to this event. Rumors suggest he plans to deploy the National Guard to confiscate guns or cut off power and internet in Richmond to enact a nighttime gun seizure. These claims, which have been debunked by prominent gun advocates, have only gained traction due to the governor’s actions.
As the *Prepared* team, we’ll be closely watching the reaction at the upcoming SHOT Show in Las Vegas, where the gun industry will gather. We’ll be keeping a close eye on what happens in Virginia next week and reporting back. Stay tuned.
