Paper mills accelerate into the downstream industry, these four types of carton companies will be the first to go out

Abstract: Nowadays, the carton industry has entered the peak time of “divinding the bean slice, gradually revealing the machine bud; fearing the country, not knowing the death”, and the carton enterprises that can survive will be few. Perhaps the deadly test is in the coming 2019, and I hope your business is lucky.

In the current paper packaging industry, the market is glued up. From the big to the annual production value of tens of billions of leading papermaking enterprises, the small five-head small carton factory, which is small in the family workshop, has fallen into confusion and anxiety. The paper giant is worried about high inventory, and it is a torment for a long period of downtime; the carton factory is worried about the order, and suddenly it is shrinking.

When the packaging industry entered the stage of stock market and began to shrink rapidly in the roar of the excavator resounding throughout the country, the entire industrial chain began to be turbulent, and news of various price increases was flying, and the division of labor in the past began to collapse. Paper and paperboard enterprises are accelerating their penetration into the downstream industrial chain.

There is no doubt that paper companies will wave their cost weapons and snatch orders that were originally owned by paper packaging plants. In this wave of competition, e-commerce, daily chemical, food and beverage and other types of packaging that are extremely sensitive to cost will become the main battlefield, and some enterprises that rely on low-cost maintenance to survive will face the danger of being cleared.

In order to digest production capacity, paper mills are strongly cutting into the cardboard and carton industry.

Beginning in 2018, in order to ensure the stable output of production capacity, the paper giants after the expansion of production capacity began to aggressively enter the downstream packaging and printing industry. The rapid action and large scale made the downstream packaging industry short and short.

As early as 2013, Shandong Century Sunshine Paper Group began a major transformation, instead of expanding its paper production, but launched the “Sunshine Concept Packaging Pre-printing Project” to extend one foot to the downstream packaging industry. However, the main product of Century Sunshine's 1.3 million tons of papermaking capacity is about 1 million tons of coated white-faced cattle cardboard, and only 60,000 tons of cardboard and corrugated paper used to produce cartons. In order to speed up the packaging industry, in late February of this year, Shandong Century Sunshine Paper purchased two large-scale cultural paper machines from the already-discontinued De WalsumPapier Company and transformed them into an annual output of 800,000 tons of packaging paper.

Founded in 1985, Yantai City Dazhan Paper Co., Ltd. has four packaging paper production lines. In 2017, Achievo Paper completed a total output of 21.24 million tons, completed a total sales volume of 206,000 tons, and a total industrial output value of 833 million yuan. 813 million yuan, total tax payment of 70.9 million yuan. Zhang Jiaqi, general manager of the company, said that the next five years will be the process of integration of the carton packaging industry. In order to have greater advantages in product quality, efficiency and cost, to maintain and increase market share, the company will eliminate the existing 1.8-meter production line. The investment of 120 million yuan is a new 2.8-meter production line imported from Italy. It is expected to be put into trial operation in late November this year.

In July of this year, a “Cardboard Test Machine Quotation” of Xiaolong Intelligent Packaging (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. was introduced into the market in a low-key manner. In an instant, the entire cardboard and carton industry in the Pearl River Delta fell into a shadow. According to the estimates of Dongguan cardboard industry, the quotation is at least 10% lower than the same specifications of the peers, and the price difference per square meter can reach as much as 0.50 yuan. Obviously, with the market demand decreasing day by day, Xiaolong began to aggressively enter the cardboard and carton industry to ensure the digestion of the raw paper capacity of up to 17 million tons.

In fact, Shanying, Rongcheng, Jingxing, Yongfengyu and other paper-based enterprises have already played the entire industrial chain, but it is so rare and urgent as this year is very rare. Under such a violent impact, a large number of cardboard and carton companies will be eliminated.

Four types of carton companies are the first to be eliminated

According to the first-hand information gathered from all over the country, this year's carton orders are generally reduced by 20% to 30%, of which ordinary ink and carton boxes are particularly obvious. In the paperboard industry, whether it is the traditional power of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, or the emerging markets of Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Henan and other places, the extent of the order decline has made everyone unexpected. Among them, in addition to the reduction in absolute orders, the new paper companies have a strong share of another one.

The strong cut of the paper mill further aggravated the overcapacity of the packaging industry, and even some large carton factories were "dumb to eat berberine, and there was no hardship to say." This is the end of the matter, I must use my toes to guess what will happen next!

In the face of this wave of shocks, the following types of carton companies may be the first to go out.

A. A carton enterprise that creates low-cost customer relationships

Food, beverages, e-commerce, and daily chemicals are the largest users of packaging cartons. However, the main features of such orders are simple process and high quality requirements, but they are extremely sensitive to cost. There are two main requirements for customers in the carton industry: one is stable delivery, and the other is lower cost. These two points are precisely the advantages of companies such as Xiaolong, especially in the case of cheap foreign approvals, paper giants such as Xiaolong have stronger firepower to compete at low prices. Therefore, the worst fear of this year will be the production of food, beverages, e-commerce, and daily chemical cartons.

B. Small and medium-sized carton enterprises that are difficult to bear the environmental protection, safety supervision and social security standardization costs

The management cost of SMEs is low, environmental safety and safety supervision can not meet the requirements, social security payment is not standardized, these are originally the small and medium-sized carton factories and the high-end carton counterparts to compete for the survival of the body. However, in the case of a serious overcapacity and the government's strengthening of supervision, such enterprises have basically lost the basis of survival. Even if you want to stay hard, environmental protection, safety supervision, and taxation will close you in minutes!

C. Export-oriented carton factory under low-price competition

The Pearl River Delta and Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are the gathering areas of China's carton packaging industry. An important reason is the existence of a large number of export processing enterprises. Affected by factors such as foreign capital transfer, sweater war, low-price competition and social security, there will be a large number of carton factories choosing to abandon their operations. Take Guangdong as an example. In 2017, Guangdong's exports of goods accounted for 56% of the country's total, while Guangdong's carton companies are also close to one-third of the country. If exports are significantly reduced, there will be a large number of carton companies closing down.

D. Insufficient cash flow and weak competitive carton factory

In recent years, some banks have begun to tighten credit to the manufacturing industry, and the carton industry has become the hardest hit. With the atypical rise in the original paper, the purchase of the same raw materials, companies need to pay more, thus exacerbating the company's capital chain crisis.

Throughout the open China's carton packaging industry, 1998-2008 is the best decade in the industry, and also a decade of brutal growth; 2008-2014 industry bid farewell to adjust growth, formally enter the platform period, which is also the boss's asset harvesting The best time. Since 2014, the industry has entered a reshuffle period, in which the price increase in 2017 suddenly opened an escape window for carton companies, and very few bosses fortunately completed the victory escape.

Nowadays, the carton industry has entered the peak moment of “divinding the bean slice, gradually revealing the machine bud; fearing the country, not knowing the death”, and the carton enterprises that can survive will be few. Perhaps the deadly test is in the coming 2019, and I hope your business is lucky.

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