Under the background that European debt solutions are difficult to achieve overnight, domestic monetary policy adjustment is not large, and the growth rate of the world's major economies is slow, the demand for bulk commodities will still be suppressed. In terms of strategy, most commodities are still dominated by rallies. Beans and fats have no substantial benefits First, soybeans lack substantial substantive factors. In October, the US Department of Agriculture lowered US soybean yields to 41.5 bushels per acre, which has certain support for soybean prices, but there is a large decline in demand, which limits the rebound of soybean prices. Second, palm oil production is expected to remain in October. The level of 1.8 million tons or more, the export volume is about 1.6 million tons, and the ending stocks will remain above 2 million tons. In the short term, palm oil is abundantly supplied and stocks are high, which has a greater suppression of palm oil prices. After November, Southeast Asian palm oil entered a seasonal production cycle, production fell back month by month, ending stocks will also fall from high levels, palm oil prices are expected to slowly rise. Shanghai Steel's decline slows Recently, the prices of steel products (4,500, 74.00, 1.67%) have plummeted continuously, and the long-term social stocks have declined significantly. As of October 22, the domestic key market rebar (4016, -42.00, -1.03%) social inventory of 593.28 tons, a decrease of 3.1% from the previous trading week; wire rod social inventory of 1,271,800 tons, a decrease of 2.52% from last week. The total inventory of building materials in key cities nationwide decreased by 220.27 million tons to 7.2246 million tons, and the social stocks of various varieties in the country were 148.716 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. The mining price accelerated the decline and the transaction was almost stagnant. According to estimates, the tax-included cost of secondary rebar in key enterprises last Friday was about 4,546.62 yuan / ton, the loss per ton of steel was 356.62 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin was -7.84%. In summary, the current rebar market in the rebar period last week is now plunging. The weak demand and the weakening of the cost support make it difficult for market confidence to recover in the short term. However, after the continuous release of bearish risks, there is limited room for further sharp decline. Methanol continuous plastic will remain weak In October, the domestic methanol market continued to weaken, and the price of East China fell from the high of 3050-3250 yuan/ton to 2950-3080 yuan/ton. The downstream demand in the inland areas was weak, the inventory was slowly digested, and many devices in the northwest and surrounding areas. Overhaul or planned maintenance did not cause any significant positive impact on the market. The external market fell sharply on the weekend. CFR China's methanol closing price was 399-401 US dollars / ton, down 15 US dollars / ton, firming for the first time in more than half a month, the outer disk market fell sharply for the first time. The ports in East China and South China continued to fall, and the market saw an increase in the hollow state. The peak season of energy consumption will support the upstream cost. As the weather is about to turn cold, the peak of coal and natural gas consumption is coming, the price is expected to run at a high level, and the peak season of energy consumption will support the price of upstream raw materials. In addition, the export of plates and furniture is limited by the United States. It is difficult to increase the difficulty of financing the enterprise, and the turnover of the real estate market is shrinking. As the main downstream adhesives for formaldehyde, the demand for formaldehyde is sluggish, and the demand for formaldehyde will be weaker during the peak season. Prices are still dominated by consolidation, with partial upswings; acetic acid prices may continue to be weak; domestic gasoline and diesel prices are negative for methanol gasoline. The price of methanol in China and Southeast Asia is relatively strong. Over the weekend, Southeast Asia's CFR plummeted by $15/ton, and the price of East China's ports is expected to continue to fall. The supply and demand situation of plastics (9355, 260.00, 2.86%) has not changed much. The demand for agricultural film in North China has a supporting effect on plastics, but there are more cheap imports of plastics. The total social stocks are higher, offsetting the bullish factors and lowering the price of plastics. In the early period, Liansu has been adjusted in depth, and the price difference between the products has been extended. Relative to the price of crude oil and the price of low pressure and high pressure, the prices of linear plastics are both low. However, the current supply and demand of plastics are basically in a secondary position to the price impact, while the financial attributes, the European debt crisis and the domestic capital market sentiment and other macro factors affect the direction of plastics. This week, even plastic will still be dominated by short positions.
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